Welcome to MoneyNerd — your weekly shortcut to how the latest news and trends shape your financial life. We’re here to keep you informed, confident and ready for whatever the economy throws your way.
In this week’s edition:
Prediction markets explained.
Red meat is in, but beef prices are skyrocketing.
That 10% credit card interest cap could have negative consequences.
Half of Americans say revolving credit card debt is normal.
Nerdy money tips.
7 days to fix your finances.
Political pressure is weighing on the Fed.
Elsewhere in money news:
Price check! How prices on 114 items at Walmart changed in the last year. (NPR)
Speaking of prices… a viral grocery receipt from 1997 shows 200% price increases over time. (Today)
Missing data, skipped surveys and federal staffing cuts are leading to gaps in government statistics. (Bloomberg) 🔒
AI chatbots are starting to include ads. (Washington Post) 🔒
Prediction markets gamble on what happens next
Courtesy of Polymarket
What if your next hot take could make you money? People are increasingly putting a price tag on forecasting real-world events using prediction markets.
Prediction markets, like Polymarket and Kalshi, let people bet on the outcome of real-world events. And we’re not just talking about sports — people wager on elections, court rulings, geopolitical events, stock market movements, economic data, awards, weather, TV and movie releases, disease outbreaks, earthquakes, business earnings, app rankings, and pop culture odds. In other words, pretty much anything is possible.
Here’s how they work: People trade contracts based on what they think will happen. Contract prices reflect the crowd's collective belief about the likelihood of an event.
The market poses a question, such as: Will the Fed cut rates in January? How many tornadoes will hit the U.S. this month? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? How many times will Elon Musk tweet in a certain time period? Each outcome is represented by a contract that pays a fixed amount if your prediction is correct.
Who’s gonna win an Oscar?
For example, right now on Polymarket there’s a question asking who will win Best Supporting Actor at the 2026 Oscars. As of this writing, Stellan Skarsgård has the highest chance of winning at 45%, while the other nominees have lower odds — Benicio Del Toro, for example, has a 15% chance.
In the market, contracts backing Skarsgård are priced around $0.45 (representing a 45% chance of winning), while Del Toro’s are $0.15 (representing, you guessed it, a 15% chance of winning). If Skarsgård wins, each contract pays out $1, or roughly a $0.55 gain per contract. If Del Toro wins, his contracts pay out $1 each, a $0.85 gain. Contracts for the losing nominees are worthless.
Big payouts are real, so are big losses
Sounds fun, right? Get rewarded for following the herd — or going against it. But there are risks.
Prediction markets are largely unregulated and losses are real. Big investors can sway prices and there has even been speculation of insider trading. These platforms resemble gambling, an addictive habit that encourages risky behavior.
Bottom line: Prediction markets are attractive, but if you decide to jump into the pool, proceed with caution.
Red meat is in, but beef prices are up. Way up.
The White House upended the food pyramid late last week, releasing new dietary guidelines that recommend some foods that had fallen out of favor with doctors, such as whole-fat dairy products — and red meat.
“We are ending the war on saturated fats,” Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said at a press conference announcing the new guidelines.
Before you stock up the fridge with steak, though, take another look at the price tag. Consumer price index data for December, released on Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, show that beef and veal prices overall are up a whopping 16.4% annually — miles above the overall food inflation rate of 3.1%. How does that break down?
Steak prices rose 2.2% from November to December, and are now up 17.8% over the previous 12 months.
Ground beef rose a more modest 0.2% from November, and is up 15.5% over 12 months.
Beef roast prices actually fell 2.3% from November, but are still up 17.5% year over year.
A pound of sirloin costs an average of $14.03 now (down slightly from its peak in 2025), while a pound of ground beef now averages $6.69. Those prices were $8.44 and $3.89 respectively in January 2020 — on the eve of the pandemic.
Why are prices so high?
U.S. demand for beef remains strong, even in the face of higher prices. We consumed an estimated 28.6 billion pounds of it in 2025. At the same time, U.S. herd sizes remain at or near all-time lows, due to a range of economic factors (as well as widespread, persistent droughts). Input costs such as feed and energy increased 55% from 2021 to 2024, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.
Americans eat about 60 pounds of beef annually per capita, but that’s down from 80 pounds and higher in the 1970s. If beef consumption rises again because of the new guidelines, U.S. ranchers will need time to meet increased demand — it takes 8-12 years to build herd size.
We import beef as well, but that picture has been complicated by increased tariffs.
Looking for alternative sources of protein? Here’s a bright spot in the latest CPI report: Egg prices are down almost 21% annually thanks to bird flu subsiding.
Would a 10% cap on credit card interest actually help consumers?
President Donald Trump this week expressed his support, via a social media post, for a 10% limit on credit card interest rates. He called for a one-year cap, beginning on Jan. 20, 2026. There are also bipartisan bills in the House and Senate calling for a 10% cap.
Proponents of the 10% credit card interest cap tout the massive savings in interest that cardholders will enjoy, while opponents caution that the cap could lead banks to limit access to credit and pull back on rewards programs.
On Jan. 13, House Speaker Mike Johnson said Congress would need to pass legislation on any interest rate cap, but warned there could be unintended consequences. He said, "One of the things that the president probably had not thought through is the negative secondary effect; they would just stop lending money, and maybe they cap what people are able to borrow at a very low amount.”
Revolving credit card debt up 4%, while half of Americans say ‘it’s normal’
Households with revolving credit card debt — or card balances carried month to month, likely accruing interest — owe $11,413, on average, according to NerdWallet’s annual household debt study. This is an increase of more than 4% over the past year.
I’m personally past the point of being shocked by debt balances, and you might not be surprised either. According to the survey we commissioned as part of the study, 49% of Americans say carrying credit card debt is normal. Whether this is due to its ubiquity or a coping mechanism for those feeling trapped in its clutches (or both), we can only speculate. But one thing is for sure: Normal or not, credit card debt is expensive and can absolutely eat up your budget.
For some, credit card debt becomes a cycle of pay off and accrue, pay off and accrue. Around 1 in 6 Americans (17%) have completely paid off all of their credit card debt in full and gotten back into it at least once. If you’ve found yourself on that hamster wheel, here’s what a Nerd would consider to pay off debt:
Take a break from credit cards: The survey found that 2 in 5 Americans who currently have revolving credit card debt (40%) say they still regularly use credit cards. It’s a good idea to switch to cash or debit, at least while you’re paying off those balances.
Pay more than the minimum: Credit card debt is so expensive and minimum payments could keep you in debt for decades. Add $50 or $100 to your minimum payment to potentially save years of payoff time.
Use helpful tools to make a payment plan: At the end of the day, debt payoff will require you to earn more money or spend less money to free up cash for debt payments. But you could also use AI tools to help you examine your budget and make a realistic debt payoff plan.
Your latest listen
Escape rising credit card debt before it snowballs
Senior news writer Anna Helhoski joins Sean and Elizabeth to discuss NerdWallet’s Household Debt Survey with data studies writer Erin El Issa. They break down why revolving credit card balances keep climbing, how “normalizing” debt can reduce urgency to pay it off, and why tools like buy now, pay later can feel easier upfront but get overwhelming fast.
Nerdy money tips:
Wondering if a credit card bonus is worth it? Follow the rule of three. Unless the card offers standout benefits, aim for a bonus that’s worth at least three years of the annual fee. The credit card Nerds explain.
Explore an expense tracker app. Expense tracker apps help you collect and classify your purchases so that you recognize spending patterns. We reviewed seven to help you decide which one is right for you.
Try the avalanche method to ditch your debt faster. Paying off your accounts in order from the highest to lowest interest rate could help you save time and money. The personal finance Nerds break down how it works.
7 days to fix your finances
A fresh financial start is just seven days away. Here’s how making one change day can give you a clean slate.
Political pressure on the Fed intensifies
(Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images News via Getty Images)
The independence of the Fed is at stake with the latest move from the Trump administration.
On Jan. 9, the Justice Department served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas. On Jan. 11, Fed Chair Jerome Powell released a video statement saying that the Justice Department threatened him with a criminal indictment tied to his congressional testimony on the ongoing multibillion-dollar renovation of the Fed’s headquarters.
In the video, Powell was uncharacteristically pointed in addressing the criticism of the president. “The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President,” Powell said. Trump has denied his involvement in the DOJ’s actions.
Throughout the first year of his second term, Trump has repeatedly pushed Powell and the Fed to more aggressively lower interest rates. The Fed made three modest interest rate cuts in 2025. With current inflation still above the Fed’s preferred rate of 2.0% (it was 2.7% in December), the Fed is moving cautiously in its decisions.
Critics of the DOJ’s move, which include all of the former heads of the Fed, say it threatens the Central Bank’s independence, which could threaten stability in the U.S. economy.
NerdWallet’s senior economist Elizabeth Renter says, “When politicians have greater influence over interest rates, for example, they’re historically biased to opt for faster and faster economic growth — which spins up higher and higher inflation,” Renter says. “An independent central bank is the rational parent in the room that chooses actions based on what’s good for our long-term economic health.”
Read more here.
- A.H.
In case you missed it
Here’s what else you may have missed this week from NerdWallet:
A massive wealth transfer from older to younger generations is underway, which means inheritance planning is a must, explains personal finance writer Kate Ashford.
Americans are split on whether artificial intelligence belongs in personal finance. Data studies writer Kurt Woock has more.
On Jan. 13, Trump declared a 25% tariff on all nations ‘doing business’ with Iran, reports Rick VanderKnyff.
Could tapping Venezuela’s oil reserves mean cheaper gas for U.S. drivers? News writer Anna Helhoski explores.
January is such a common time to file for divorce that it’s been long known as “divorce month” among family lawyers. Home and mortgages writer Taylor Getler explains best practices for financially separating from your ex.
Post-holiday debt hanging like an albatross on your neck? Personal finance writer Lauren Schwahn and personal loans writer Jackie Veling count down the top strategies to pay off your debt in 2026.
Your MoneyNerd team: Courtney Neidel, Anna Helhoski, Rick VanderKnyff.
Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Subscribe here.
Until next week,
