Welcome to MoneyNerd. The United States joined Israel in launching an attack on Iran on Saturday, setting off a conflict that has now spread across the region. We dive into what that means at home. Read on:
Gas prices (going up).
The stock market (going down).
Middle East travelers (going nowhere).
Also this week:
AI product recommendations (Can you trust them?)
The new Apple MacBook Neo ($599!)
Is there a new federal retirement plan? (🤷♀️)
Money tips (and more!)
Iran war: Gas price spikes, Wall Street jitters, stranded travelers
(Photo by Majid Saeedi via Getty News Images)
First off, let’s acknowledge what’s happening on the ground in the Middle East.
Since the United States and Israel launched a massive attack on Iran last Saturday, six U.S. service members have been killed, as have hundreds of Iranian civilians. Neighboring nations have been caught up in the fighting and the lives of millions have been upended. The war is projected to last weeks at least.
The immediate repercussions here at home, by contrast, are mostly pocketbook issues, but since that’s what MoneyNerd is all about, let’s dig in.
Fuel prices: So long, $3 gas
Pump prices for gasoline were stable through most of 2025, and just weeks ago the national average price dipped below $3 for a gallon of regular for the first time since 2022. Across the country, 40 states had prices below $3. Those prices are now quickly disappearing in the rear-view mirror.
As of Thursday, the national average for a gallon of regular is $3.25, rising 26 cents per gallon in less than a week, and now only 17 states have average prices under $3.
Gas prices, of course, are dependent largely on oil prices. Spot prices for a barrel of crude rose sharply after the first wave of attacks, as the movement of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz was virtually halted. None of that more-expensive oil has made it to market yet, so price hikes at gas stations are for the moment mostly “anticipatory” — station owners know they will soon pay more, so they’re building a cushion now.
What’s next for energy? Iran has absorbed widespread damage in multiple waves of attacks, but it is retaliating with drone and missile attacks across the region. In addition to paralyzing tanker traffic, Iran’s attacks are targeting ports and energy infrastructure. Saudi Arabia’s biggest oil refinery closed after a drone attack. And it’s not just gasoline: The world’s biggest liquified natural gas facility, in Qatar, was also targeted and is closed, spiking the price of natural gas in Europe.
Oil prices, as I write, are above $79, up from $65 last week. If the conflict drags on in a way that continues to affect oil supplies, some energy experts say prices could climb to over $100 per barrel. Sustained prices of over $80, economists say, could reignite broader inflation and even spark global recession.
Investing: Wall Street wobbles
The Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed the 50,000 barrier for the first time last month, to much fanfare. As of the close of trading Thursday, the Dow sits under 48,000 and has given up all its gains for the year to date. Some of that money fleeing stocks is moving into commodities like oil. Stocks in a few industries, such as oil & gas companies and defense contractors, have risen on the news, while others — particularly travel stocks like airlines and cruise operators — have fallen.
Tip: Subscribe to The Nerdy Investor, NerdWallet’s free investing newsletter.
Travel: Widespread disruption
The U.S-Israeli attacks, and Iran’s retaliatory strikes, have massively affected travel in the broader region, including major international hubs like Dubai and Doha. A State Department official, in a March 2 social media post, urged Americans “to DEPART NOW” from more than a dozen Middle Eastern countries. Thousands of travelers reportedly remain stranded in the region. Updated travel advisories can be found here.
If your travel plans have been impacted, many airlines are offering airline waivers to affected travelers, allowing them to cancel for a full refund or make free changes to their itinerary. You'll generally see these waivers when you log onto airline websites to check your flight status. If your flight has been canceled, here's what to know.
Can you trust AI product recommendations?
We all want the best of everything. It’s why “best of” lists, Google Reviews and Yelp exist. But combing through products on your own takes time, so more people are using AI for help.
A December 2025 report by Capital One found that among shoppers already using AI, 72% rely on it as their main tool for researching products.
New research suggests AI recommendations can change dramatically from one search to the next. In a study by SparkToro, an audience research and market intelligence firm, identical prompts were entered repeatedly across tools like ChatGPT, Claude and Google’s AI. The result? The brands recommended — as well as their order and the length of the response — varied almost every time. Running 142 human-written prompts about the best headphones for a traveling family member yielded 994 different responses.
Related: Data writer Kurt Woock explores what AI gets right (and very wrong) about taxes.
I’m in the market for a couch. My partner and I are tired of a sinking leather loveseat and were burned last year by an expensive custom online couch that turned out to be one big, unreturnable backache. Perfect time to test ChatGPT.
I input: “Find me the best leather, apartment-sized couch that can arrive in New York City in less than two months — no custom, must be in stock. Under $2k.”
I ran the identical prompt multiple times, closing and reopening chats, starting a new one, logging in and out, and having my partner do the same. Each time, the list changed to some degree.
AI recommendations aren’t neutral, so where do they come from?
AI learns from existing public “best of” content online, much of which is monetized through sponsored content and affiliate links. Reliability of recommendations depends on methodology and trust.
For example, Wirecutter, the product recommendation service from The New York Times, doesn't charge brands to be included in reviews and companies can’t pay to land on any of its “best of” lists. The Strategist, from New York Magazine, works similarly. Both earn affiliate commissions from some products, but are transparent about their independent approach to “best of” lists and how they make money.
(Full disclosure: That’s essentially how NerdWallet makes its money.)
We don’t know how AI selects products, or what will happen when ads and affiliate links are introduced to the mix. Always treat AI recommendations as a starting point, and check independent customer reviews (outside of the company websites), to compare products.
I’m still undecided on which couch is truly “best” for me, but maybe it’s time to get offline and sit on a few in person.
You had me at ‘hello,’ MacBook Neo (because I can afford you)
Look! It comes in yellow! (Photo courtesy of Apple)
Apple went a bit bananas with a host of product announcements this week. The iPhone 17e is a compelling option for upgraders who don’t want to overspend. The MacBook Pro, MacBook Air and iPad Air get more processing power. There are new Studio Display monitors, too. But the star of the show has to be the all-new, $599 MacBook Neo.
The Neo: I don’t need a new computer, but I’m intrigued by this release. The 13-inch laptop looks sleek, compact and colorful, and is powered by an iPhone chip (A18 Pro) that should provide enough power for the casual computer user. It’s kind of like an iPad with a built-in keyboard that runs macOS. And the $599 (or $499 for education) starting price is well below the next MacBook up. Apple did wha…?
Meanwhile, PC makers are shaking in their Allbirds. Chromebooks are feeling the heat, too. To parents of students: Be ready when your kid makes the pitch. “Ma, pa. I need a Neo. It’s essential to my studies.”
The 17e: A $599 phone isn’t new for Apple, but the latest version upgrades base storage to 256GB without a price increase. Other notable enhancements of iPhone 17e over the 16e? It has a faster, current-gen chip, MagSafe for charging and accessories, and a more scratch-resistant screen on the front. But because it’s the budget model, it retains the outdated camera notch up top and keeps its thick bezels around the screen.
Call me superficial, but I’d choose the sleeker iPhone 17 for $200 more if I was in the market.
Turn free time into extra income. Tasks like walking a dog or selling gently used items can help you make money in as little as an hour.
Arrive at the airport with plenty of time to spare. Give yourself two hours before departure for domestic flights and three for international.
Know where your credit stands before applying for a car loan. Interest rates vary widely. Checking your credit score can help you estimate your rate and compare offers.
The Paramount-Warner Bros. merger is ready for its close-up
Senior news editor Rick VanderKnyff helps unpack Paramount’s bid to buy Warner Bros. Discovery, including how the back-and-forth played out after Netflix walked away and what the deal could mean for consumers.
Watch below or get the audio version.
Is the Trump administration creating a new retirement savings plan?
President Donald Trump announced in his recent State of the Union address that Americans who don’t have access to 401(k) accounts with an employer match will be able to access the same kind of retirement plan that’s available to federal workers. (He was referencing the Thrift Savings Plan, a 401(k)-style retirement plan for federal employees.) Trump also said the government will match contributions with up to $1,000 per year.
Under the Secure 2.0 law passed in 2022, part of this is already scheduled to happen. In 2027, the current Saver’s Credit will be replaced by the Saver’s Match, a refundable federal matching contribution paid directly into existing IRAs and workplace retirement accounts.
For eligible workers, the government will match 50% of contributions to retirement accounts up to $2,000 a year, or up to $1,000 per individual. Income limits are on the lower side: Eligibility starts phasing out at incomes over $20,500 for single tax filers and over $41,000 for married couples filing jointly.
While Trump may have been referencing the upcoming Saver’s Match, it’s not clear whether there will be legislation to create a new retirement plan program to go with it. CNN reports that White House officials said details are coming “soon.”
Here’s a look at what the Nerds covered this week:
We kicked off our Monthly Wallet Wins series. Personal finance writer Kate Ashford explained how to stop your paycheck from disappearing.
Kate also answered a question from a listener of NerdWallet’s Smart Money podcast. Find out how you can afford assisted living.
Thinking about quitting your job? The Nerds explored what to do — according to career experts — before deciding to leave.
We're seeing interest rates on 30-year, fixed rate mortgages start with fives for the first time in three-and-a-half years. Mortgages writer Kate Wood explained what to expect from mortgage rates in March.
Discover 5% bonus categories for Q2 2026 have been announced. Credit cards writer Jae Bratton broke down the details.
The SAVE student loan repayment plan is ending, but when remains unclear. For those still enrolled, student loans writer Shannon Bradley outlined four possible actions to take.
Is your home underinsured? Insurance writer Kaz Weida dug into how much it costs to rebuild.
Elsewhere in money news:
Tax refunds could be bigger this year. And many Americans are planning to use their refunds to pay down debt. (CBS News)
Can you guess which state is the most expensive for in-home caregiving? (MarketWatch) 🔒
Amazon cut jobs in its robotics division this week. (Business Insider) 🔒
Your MoneyNerd team: Courtney Neidel, Anna Helhoski, Rick VanderKnyff.
Until next week,
